Viewing 10 posts - 1 through 10 (of 10 total)
21st June 2014 at 6:51 pm
As of the time of writing this post, here are the current numbers for the betting pool:
Total bets collected: 113’000
Size of winnings pool: 101’700
The attached table shows the number of shares outstanding, current share price, and current decimal odds for each team.
Decimal odds are a marginal ROI figure; so if you spend 1 NHZ on Germany right now, and then Germany wins, you would receive back 1.7 NHZ, a +70% return on your investment. Of course, this is only a marginal figure – your actual winnings will differ because they depend on what everybody else does as well.Anomalous EventParticipantHorizon: 0.00 HZ
22nd June 2014 at 1:40 pm
Ok! Things are heating up a little.
Total bets collected: 457’000
Size of winnings pool: 411’300
I’m attaching a new table of odds. There is now a secondary market in shares. If you purchase shares of the top 4 teams (Germany, Brazil, Argentina, and France), you are purchasing them from speculative buyers, not from me. As such, your money will not increase the size of the betting pool – but you will get the shares more cheaply than you would get them from me.PharesimKeymasterHorizon: 123.50 HZ
22nd June 2014 at 9:20 pm
Stakeholder bounty is paid to the escrow account too, please add it to the winning poolAnomalous EventParticipantHorizon: 0.00 HZ
24th June 2014 at 2:14 pm
Per pharesim’s request, I’m including the stakeholder bounty accrued by the escrow account in the winnings pool. As an act of goodwill (or lazy accounting; they conveniently coincide here), I’m also including the stakeholder bounty accrued by my original escrow deposit of 150’000.
The past couple days have been quieter on the betting front; we have a couple new teams on the list, but the biggest change is that the first tier of Holland’s shares are now sold out.
I’m attaching the current odds table. Just for reference, here are William Hill’s World Cup odds (sorry, they do British odds on this site): http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/1277216/World-Cup-2014—Tournament-Winner.html?I.Have.Read.And.Accepted.The.Site.Warning=true
For those who don’t want to try to figure out British-style odds, their ranking is Brazil, Argentina, Germany, France, Holland, and Belgium in the first 6 spots on the table.Anomalous EventParticipantHorizon: 0.00 HZ
7th July 2014 at 5:33 pm
It’s been a little while since I’ve updated, since the bet volumes have been pretty low of late. But I thought since the semifinals are all set to start, it would be worth giving an update on the odds.
Winnings pool: 464’592.8365
Note: to check the size of the winnings pool, you can check the escrow account and the main pool account and calculate the pool as follows:
(WorldCup2014BettingPoolEscrow – 150’000) + (WorldCup2014BettingPool – 10’000)*0.9PharesimKeymasterHorizon: 123.50 HZ
7th July 2014 at 10:41 pm
Argentinia seems to be a good bet compared to the odds at other placesAnomalous EventParticipantHorizon: 0.00 HZ
9th July 2014 at 11:34 pm
And we’re down to two!
Current Pool size: 601’730
Got some massive bets on Germany right after today’s game; so far, no correspondingly-large bets on Argentina. That means if Argentina wins, some people are going to do very well! As always, you can check the pool size according to the formula I posted above.
Note that I won’t cancel my sell orders until a day or so after the final match – but since the orders are ascending in price, this doesn’t make things unfair. You can still get Argentina for 60 NHZ; at the current pool size, the buyback price at the end could rise to over 200 NHZ per share.
Here are the asset ID’s, for reference:
That’s all for now, folks!silverNxtParticipantHorizon: 0.00 HZ
10th July 2014 at 10:27 am
someone bought 5150 Argntinia Shares? ? 😮 😮 😮 😮 😮Anomalous EventParticipantHorizon: 0.00 HZ
14th July 2014 at 1:37 pm
Congratulations, Deutschland! Germany are the winners of the 2014 FIFA World Cup!
I’ve canceled all the sell orders, and tallied the pool.
The escrow account has 1’282’361.6184415 NHZ in it, of which 150’000 was my original deposit. This means the total winnings pool is:
I issued a total of 503’250 shares at the beginning; the issuing account now has only 498’554 shares remaining, for a total outstanding share quantitiy of:
(503’250 – 498’554) = 4’696.
The winnings pool will be split equally among these 4’696 shares:
(1’132’361.6184415 / 4’696) = 241.13322369 NHZ/share.
I’ll instruct pharesim to conduct the remaining business from the escrow account.
How to Claim Your Winnings:
Check the order book of asset 8488430070882212021. If there is a buy order for the above price, you can sell your shares and collect your winnings! Don’t worry, you can’t be scammed unless you sell your shares for less than 241.14422369 per share.jadefalkeParticipantHorizon: 0.00 HZ
14th July 2014 at 9:03 pm
yeah, Germany won!!! 😉
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